This week, Oklahoma and Texas fired the opening salvo in the next decade of Conference realignment. So how will it end up? I don’t know. But it would be fun if it was as chaotic as possible:
Move #1: Texas and Oklahoma move to the SEC.
The new SEC is comprised of states with about 37.9 Million TV households.
Move #2 The PAC 12 and the Big 10 merge.
Since the last round of conference realignment, the PAC 12 and the Big 10 both missed out on Texas and saw their hold on the Rose Bowl diminished by the playoff. It’s time to go big.
The primary goal of the merger is to bail out the failing PAC 12 network and expand upon the success of the Big 10, letting the Big 10 manage the media rights of the new conference and grabbing as many states (and TV households) as possible.
The secondary goal will be to become the shining academic conference in the country, one that may even make the Ivy league sweat. To do this, the new conference will adopt the B1G’s AAU requirement. As a result the new conference will be called the Associate of American Universities Conference, or “the AAU Conference”.
The conference will be comprised of 24 teams in three 8 team divisions.
AAU Pacific Division: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Arizona.
Arizona State, Washington State and Oregon State are not AAU, and are therefore cut out of the AAU Conference. Utah is AAU, however out of the remaining nine schools, Utah has the smallest market and the least traditional tie so the Utes get the axe.
AAU B1G Division: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Tulane, and Rice.
Eight B1G schools turn on six of their brethren, the reward for their treachery, Notre Dame. Tulane and Rice are academic stars who won’t steal many wins from the big 3 in the division, but they will aid in recruiting talent rich Houston and New Orleans.
AAU Atlantic Division: Buffalo, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, Florida, Georgia Tech, and Vanderbilt.
Ultimately, Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa are the six that are not invited to join the AAU conference.
Buffalo gets the nod because (a boy can dream, and) they are AAU and they deliver New York State, by location, not by hearts and minds. The New York market is so valuable, it is worth one spot to have a team in New York State as well as a team in the NY Metro area (Rutgers).
US News ranks Vandy as the #14 school in the nation, Virginia #26, Florida #30, and Georgia Tech #35. The Presidents of these schools will want to be associated with the AAU conference for academic reasons.
Overall, the AAU conference is comprised of states with a whooping 91,120,430 TV households and the 24 team conference has an average US news ranking of 45.
Move #3: The SEC strikes back
With Florida and Vandy removed, the 14 team SEC will replace Florida with Florida State. NC State is the idea candidate for the SEC to move up the coast, and Virginia Tech would jump at a SEC invite once Virginia leaves the ACC.
Without FSU, VaTech and Notre Dame, it’s time for Clemson to jump ship. The addition of Clemson will solidify the SEC as the best football league in the country.
For recruiting and tv markets, the SEC will add West Virginia and Cincinnati.
The new SEC will be comprised of four 5 team divisions:
The South: Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, & LSU.
The West: Ole Miss, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, & Tennessee.
The East: Florida St, Georgia, South Carolina, Clemson, & NC State.
The North: Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Kentucky, & Missouri
The new SEC is comprised of states with 50,675,810 tv households.
Move #4: The ACC focuses on Basketball
At this point the remaining 8 ACC teams are: Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Miami and Louisville. UNC and Duke will add 12 teams to make the ACC as basketball dominant as it can be.
The ACC Coastal: Boston College, UConn, Syracuse, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Temple, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Miami
The ACC Inland: Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Louisville, Memphis, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Houston
The new ACC has 123 final four appearances and 32 NCAA Men’s Basketball championships. Additionally, the UConn and Baylor have the potential to dominate Women’s Basketball.
The new ACC is comprised of states with 57,001,830 tv households.
Move #5: The Big 16 hangs on
The last major conference left, the Big 12 poaches the cast-off PAC 12 schools and some American schools to get to 16 teams.
Big 16 Pacific Coast: Washington St, Oregon St, Boise, St, UNLV, San Diego State, Utah, BYU and Arizona State.
Big 16 Great Plains: Colorado State, Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, FAU.
The Big 16 has the elements for success, namely access to California, Texas and Florida. It could produce good football, or it could collapse. For every program, this is either their last chance to remain on the major stage, or their first and final audition.
The Big 16 is comprised of states with 45,598,140 tv households.
Move #6: The G5 consolidates into the G3 and awaits their fate
The MAC - The MAC replaces Buffalo with Marshall, and remains a regional niche league.
The American - The remaining MWC teams join the American, creating a 20-team league. With solidarity, they hope to remain tethered with the power conferences. If the P4 breaks away this league will probably splinter.
American West: Hawaii, Nevada, SJSU, Fresno, Wyoming, Utah St, New Mexico, UTSA, Tulsa, SMU
American East: Air Force, Navy, ODU, ECU, Coastal Carolina, UAB, Georgia State, South Florida, Southern Miss, Louisiana
CUSA - Everything left falls into the CUSA:
CUSA East: WKU, MTSU, Liberty, App St, Charlotte, Georgia Southern, Troy, FIU
CUSA West: South Alabama, Arkansas St, UL Monroe, LA. Tech, N. Texas, Texas St, UTEP, NMSU
INDY - Army, UMass
Army doesn’t want to join the American, UMass still can’t find a home.
The MWC and Sun Belt are left with no teams and shuttered.